Quarter

I’ve gone and done it. I changed my picture in my profile from a dime to a quarter. My last 3500 hands have been 25NL, minus my 6max Experiment, so, it only makes sense. I may drop down to 10NL if I have a bad run, but for now, that’s where I’m at. I don’t have 20 full buyins, but I have enough to play 20 buyins of $20, so that’s what I’m going to do. If I drop below $200 on UB, I’ll drop down. I don’t feel nervous or uncomfortable playing at 25NL. There are a lot of rocks, but a lot of them are weak tight (I consider myself weak-tight, but they are way worse than I am). There have been no players that have had me scrambling yet. I don’t always know where I’m at, and I’ve gotten myself into trouble, but I haven’t ever felt like I was the sucker at the table. I feel like I’m still one of the top guys at every table I sit down at.

I’m still seeing the same betting patterns – making a smaller bet on the turn than was made on the flop – guaranteed to fold to a raise or river bet, min blocking bets for bottom pair or a draw that will usually fold to a raise on the turn. 2 barrel bluffs that give up on the river. I still occasionally run overpairs or top pairs into sets, or kings into aces, but I think that will always happen. I’m slowing down a bit with them depending on the player, but if the stack to pot ratios are reasonable, I’m going for it.

I’m tightening up and calling fewer raises, playing less out of the blinds, playing more on the button, and playing strong with my big aces and pairs.

We’ll see how it goes.

Pokertracker Numbers Update

I haven’t updated my Pokertracker numbers online since June, so I thought I’d post them for you to peruse. I didn’t split them into games with 1000+ hands, it’s not worth the effort.

I’m most interested in the relationship between my PTBB/100, %VPIP, %Showdown%Won when saw the flop, and %Won when saw showdown. I’m looking for relationships, although I’m not seeing anything. I’m not really comparing NL and Limit, that’s pointless, so really, I’m focusing on NL, because I haven’t played any Limit in over a year.

Anyway, take a look and tell me what you think.

Well…

An interesting night. I couldn’t get anything right at .05/.10. However, I played some .10/.25 for a full buyin (see previous post), doubled up quickly with a set, got up with 54 bucks, for a profit of 29.. Sat down at another table, was up about 5, then got nearly stacked with this hand:

Hand #45623390-1xxx at (No Limit Hold’em)
Started at 17/Sep/07 22:01:16

is at seat 0 with $18.42.
is at seat 2 with $26.92.
seat 3 with $39.91.
is at seat 4 with $1.89.
is at seat 5 with $58.02.
is at seat 6 with $18.12.
is at seat 7 with $25.
is at seat 8 with $17.17.
is at seat 9 with $11.60.
The button is at seat 5.

posts the small blind of $.10.
posts the big blind of $.25.

: — –
Winner: — –
: — –
54: — –
: — –
: — –
me: As 8s
: — –
: — –

Pre-flop:

folds. calls. calls.
Winner folds. folds. 54 calls.
folds. folds. me
checks.

Flop (board: 4s 3h 2d):

me checks. checks.
bets $.75. 54 folds. me calls.
folds.

Turn (board: 4s 3h 2d Qs):

me checks. bets $1.
me raises to $5.60. goes
all-in for $17.42. me calls.

River (board: 4s 3h 2d Qs 6c):

(no action in this round)

Showdown:

shows Qc Ts.
has Qc Ts 4s Qs 6c: a pair of queens.
me mucks cards.
(me has As 8s.)

Hand #45623390-13269 Summary:

$1.48 is raked from a pot of $37.44.
wins $35.96 with a pair of queens.
—————————————————————-

I thought my raise would push him off. I have a big draw with a lot of outs – I can’t know exactly how many, but I figured I had at least 12 (flush and gutshot) and he has like QJ. In reality, I had 14 (the 3 aces minus his Ts) if he calls. I was surprised by the all in reraise, and thought it might be a full on bluff. He was pretty aggressive. I calculated wrong thinking I had 3-1 pot odds so I was even money if I was behind. However, I had to call $12 to win $27, so in retrospect, I made a bad call, and probably should have check-called the turn with my outs. I’m always second guessing whether or not I should be more aggressive with the bigger draws. I don’t want to be results-oriented and say ‘yeah, check-call, check fold was the right play, would have saved me money’. I definitely blew the all-in call, and that’s an easy fix, fold when you don’t have outs. I shouldn’t have played because I was a bit tired. However, the checkraise on the turn is the thing that’s got me thinking. Press your big draws or try to catch for cheap?

Fortunately, I picked up some big hands and about $20 of it back.

Overall, up for the night about 14 bucks. Should have been more.

Maximizing

Hand #45622966-xxxxx at (No Limit Hold’em)
Started at 17/Sep/07 21:33:52

me is at seat 0 with $11.30.
someone is at seat 1 with $4.70.
LAG is at seat 2 with $10.
Chatty is at seat 3 with $10.
unknown is at seat 4 with $10.
LAGGISHr is at seat 5 with $6.46.
Unknown is at seat 6 with $4.51.
Unknown2 is at seat 7 with $4.15.
calling station is at seat 8 with $5.87.
Ultra Calling Station is at seat 9 with $15.93.
The button is at seat 1.

Chatty posts the small blind of $.05.
unknown posts the big blind of $.10.

me: Ac Qc
someone: — –
Chatty: — –
unknown: — –
LAGGISHr: — –
Unknown: — –
Unknown2: — –
calling station: — –
Ultra Calling Station: — –

Pre-flop:

LAGGISHr calls. Unknown calls. Unknown2
folds. calling station calls. Ultra Calling Station calls.
me calls. someone folds. Chatty calls.
unknown checks.

Flop (board: 6d Kc 6s):

Chatty checks. unknown checks.
LAGGISHr checks. Unknown bets $.10.
calling station calls. Ultra Calling Station calls. me
calls. Chatty folds. unknown folds.
LAGGISHr folds.

Turn (board: 6d Kc 6s 5c):

Unknown bets $.25. calling station folds. Ultra Calling Station
calls. me calls.

River (board: 6d Kc 6s 5c 2c):

Unknown bets $.40. Ultra Calling Station folds. me
raises to $3.05. Unknown goes all-in for $4.06.
me calls.

Showdown:

Unknown shows Kh Kd.
Unknown has Kh Kd 6d Kc 6s: full house, kings full of sixes.
me mucks cards.
(me has Ac Qc.)

Hand #45622966-25763 Summary:

$.49 is raked from a pot of $9.97.
Unknown wins $9.48 with full house, kings full of sixes.
—————————————————————-

Could I have lost any less on this hand? I really thought about it, and I’m thinking “There is no way this guy has KK”, and sure enough, he does.

BR Obsession

While I never stick 100% to the general accepted BR management requirements -

• Never buyin at a table with more than 5% of your bankroll (20 buyins)
• Never buyin to a tourney with more than 2% of your bankroll (50 buyins)
• Never reload online (that’s an agreement with my wife and myself)

- I am trying to temper myself though and not move up too fast. After that last 10 buyin downswing, I really want to be careful. I don’t want to have to go back down to .01/.02 if I can help it, and I like playing the 100BB buyin game much better than buying in short. It’s less robotic.

Ok, I’m obsessing again about my bankroll. My big issue right now is whether to treat my online bankroll as a single roll or as 2 separate rolls since it’s split between two sites. I never really see people write about it, so I don’t have anything else to go on but my gut. Why am I obsessing? Because, as always, I’d like to move up. I’d like to move up for a couple reasons:

1. Get to a level where I can actually earn enough to pay myself a ’salary’
2. Get to a level where I can afford some of the larger buyin tourneys
3. Improve my game by playing against better players
4. Prove to myself I can win at a tougher game
5. Get to a level where the rake isn’t as brutal in relationship to the pot.
6. Get to a level where the amount of buyins between levels evens out.

Everyone fantasizes about playing in the big games and having a million dollar payday, me included. I’d like to be able to give myself that opportunity, so yeah, I want to move up. The problem is, starting at the absolute lowest levels requires the absolute most wins before moving up, and the rake is at its most brutal, so it takes even longer to move up than it would at some of the higher levels. The jumps for bankroll requirements between 2NL, 5NL and 10NL are the biggest between any levels.

Below is a simple table that shows the relationship between the buyins that I would need to earn in order to move up. At .01/.02 (2NL), you would reasonably need $40 to play at that level (although realistically, since it’s the lowest level, you’d play it if you had any money at all). In order to follow the 5% rule, you’d have to win 100 buyins to have the bankroll to move up to 10NL with $200. Notice as you move up, it requires one to win fewer buyins to move up (at least until the 500NL (2/5) game. At that point, you’d probably want a little extra cushion anyway.

Max Buyin	20 Buyins	Move Up
2	40	100
10	200	50 <- You are here
25	500	40
50	1000	40
100	2000	40
200	4000	50
500	10000	40
1000	20000

I have $126 on Stars and $278 on UB. So, I have 27.5 buyins on UB for 10NL and 25 on Stars for 5NL. I should have a fairly low chance of going broke on either, as long as I treat them that way. I could also look at it as 16 buyins for 25NL between the two sites. It means I’d only need to win 10 more buyins at 10NL to bump up. 4 buyins at 25NL to make me official. I could also just buyin slightly short at $20 and have 20 buyins with my $400. If I go that route, I’m looking at six 20’s on Stars and just under 14 on UB. It’s not a lot of cushion if things go bad, and I do like having money on both sites. If money was easy to move around, I’d move it all to one site and just be done with it, but it’s not that easy to move it these days, and I like both sites. I prefer Stars for tournies and UB for cash games.

I could also buyin shorter at $15 and wait until I get my UB roll over $300. 60BBs is a weird stack size though. If I have AK in middle position, raise to 3.5BB, get 2 callers, then I have a stack to pot ratio of 5.5 on the flop. According to Ed Miller, Matt Flynn, and Sunny Mehta, if I’m committed, which I should be at that point, then I have to expect we’re getting all in if I bet. I miss 75% of the time with AK, so, when I c-bet that flop and I missed, I’m in big trouble If I’m called, I have to check fold. If I get raised, I probably have to fold. My stack isn’t big enough to checkraise someone out of that pot, either. I think I’m better off buying in for $10, and a stack of 40BB, easier to commit with. Of course, if I’m buying in that short, I might as well play 10NL.

My last option? Pretend that I’m starting from scratch at 20 buyins for 10NL and $200 on UB and take a shot with the $75 that’s left, and treat THAT as another bankroll, throw caution to the wind, and leave $200 as my artificial floor, and not cry if I blow those 3 buyins? After being so excited the past week about getting up about 10 buyins, blowing them all on a run doesn’t sound that appealing, but it does make me think of a recent Card Player magazine article by Daniel Negraneau about personality types, risk, and long term poker careers and results. I think I can probably win at 25NL, but all it takes is a couple of rough hands – KK vs. AA, cracked AA, or having a set lose to a flush on the river, and all that money is gone. At the same time, I could go on a run, be up 5 buyins, and then it would be a non-issue, and I could laugh at myself for being such a BR nit.

I can’t decide what to do. Should I take a small shot and create an artificial floor of x dollars – drop past x and drop down? Should I just plod along trying to win another 22.5 buyins on UB at 10NL? My confidence was shaken by that big downswing, yet it has been bolstered recently by a great run. I know poker is a long run game, and if I’m good enough, I’ll get there eventually. I’m trying to be patient, but when you play 8-10 hours a week at most, getting in maybe 2000 hands, the numbers aren’t pretty. I know I need to be flexible enough so I don’t go broke. I’m not so stubborn that I can’t drop down after a long losing run, but I’d hate to erase all the hard work I’ve put in, too. I guess going from $10 free bucks on UB to $278 makes it seem like it’s been forever since I moved up and made any headway. I did all that and I’m basically only half way to being fully rolled for $25NL.

So I guess I have no idea what I’m going to do. These in between bankroll points are brutal. I had the same issue when I was at about $100 and wanted to move up to 10NL from 2NL. Too much money for the lower level, not enough for the next level. Sorry for rambling.

$400 Club

Yay, I’m over $400 between PS and UB – $278 and $126.

I Keep Mentioning This

Chris Ferguson and the Art of Bankroll Maintenance, Part III – Poker Blog from Full Tilt Poker by Michael Craig – SUICIDE KINGS AND WARRIOR QUEENS

Felt I should finally pass it along. It’s the third of 3 parts, you can find the rest by following the links.

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