I had an opportunity to play a few tournaments recently. Here’s a hand from a $4.40 – 180 man tourney. I ended up later losing in a preflop pair against pair battle, and missed the money.
You may wonder why I posted this particular hand. I think it’s a good example of how to analyze draws and pot odds in NL tournaments. Here we go:
PokerStars Game #9410171111: Tournament #47711111, $4.00+$0.40 Hold’em No Limit – Level II (15/30) – 2007/04/13 – 23:47:21 (ET)Table ‘47781097 16′ 9-max
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: bob (1105 in chips)
Seat 2: me (1580 in chips)
Seat 3: hax0ra (5645 in chips)
Seat 4: maniac (4510 in chips)
Seat 5: someone2gdl (1575 in chips)
Seat 6: duder (2665 in chips)
Seat 7: atsac2 (1330 in chips)
Seat 8: bum82 (3435 in chips)
me: posts small blind 15
hax0ra: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to me [Ah 4h]
maniac: calls 30
someone2gdl: raises 60 to 90
duder: folds
atsac2: folds
bum82: calls 90
bob: folds
me: calls 75 (loose call in the SB. I call because they’re suited, and I’ve been very tight – I haven’t played a hand other than in the blinds. I can fold if I flop a pair, but hanging around if I flop a good draw. It’s been raised, but there’s one guy who already called the raise, another who called initially, and should call the raise, and the BB who will probably call as well, so I think the pot may be somewhat protected postflop. Also, because I haven’t played much, I might be able to take this one away on the end. I probably throw this hand away more often than I call with it, but I felt the situation is right, and I know how to get away from a bad A if I’m beat.)
hax0ra: folds
maniac: calls 60
*** FLOP ***
[5h Qh 3d]
me: checks (Great draw, I plan on check calling or check raising depending on the action. Realistically, I want to keep maniac in the hand so I can make more on my draw, so calling makes more sense to me. I hope that either maniac or the preflop raiser will make a nice 1/2 pot open. If both stay in the hand, I’ll probably check call the turn if I don’t make my hand. If it gets heads up on the turn, may go for the push myself if I miss. It will be hard for the guy to call at that point.)
maniac: checks
someone2gdl: bets 1485 and is all-in (This bet seemed ridiculous. It has to be a small pair or a complete whiff with a draw, or something like AK, and the guy is stealing. There is no reason to bet 3x the pot. If anyone is calling you, they’re calling whether you bet 1x the pot, or 3x the pot)
bum82: folds
me: raises 5 to 1490 and is all-in (I had to think for a bit before I did it. It was early, but there were too many reasons to put in the rest of my chips. A) The guy raised preflop. The board really doesn’t match with a preflop raise. B) The all in bet looks like a complete bluff, he has nothing or maybe a pair, or AK. C) I have a ton of outs with 2 cards to come. I have the nut flush draw (9), a gutshot (4 twos make me a straight), and I have an overcard (may or may not help me if the guy has a pair and an A, or a bigger A). At minimum, I have 13 outs. I could have as many as 16 if he has something like JJ or KK. I can’t imagine he’d have a set or something. If he did, he’d make a suck bet to try to get more money in. Early in tournaments, I’m not usually shooting for coinflip situations, but based on the action, I felt I was better than a coinflip.)
maniac: folds
*** TURN ***
[5h Qh 3d] [7s]
*** RIVER ***
[5h Qh 3d 7s] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
me: shows [Ah 4h] (a flush, Ace high)
someone2gdl: shows [Qs Ad] (a pair of Queens)me collected 3360 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3360 Rake 0
Board [5h Qh 3d 7s Jh]
Seat 1: bob (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: me (small blind) showed [Ah 4h] and won (3360) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 3: hax0ra (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: maniac folded on the Flop
Seat 5: someone2gdl showed [Qs Ad] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 6: duder folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: atsac2 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: bum82 folded on the Flop
So I had 13 true outs when I made the call, because he had a pair, and an A, so those extra overcard outs were all gone. However, using the rule of 4 with 2 outs to come, I’m right around ~50% to make my hand without the overcard (13 outs *4 = 52). Yes, I’m more or less busted and out if I miss, but I’m comfortable at 3350 chips if I win. With pot odds of 1.2 to 1, it’s still a profitable call. It may have been a bit early in the tourney to make a 50/50 call for my chips, but I think it was still a good play. Later in the tourney, if I have the other guy easily covered, I’ll always make this call, unless we’re near the bubble. The fact that the 7 comes on the turn and gives me another 4 outs doesn’t really come in to play, because I had already made the call on the flop, but that was not a bad card to turn. My odds on the turn were now 17 outs * 2 = ~34% on the river.
While this hand may remind you of the Frenchy hand, it’s a bit different. A) it’s a tournament – no rake, so the odds are better, and chip position is important, B) the pot has a nice overlay – there’s already 300 in there, C) the stacks are a little shorter, D) the bettor opened on the flop with an unwarranted all in, showing weakness, whereas Frenchy called someone who had shown strength with a raise and an all-in reraise. E) my flush draw is to the nuts, and F) I have an overcard, so I might actually be ahead if he has some suited connector hearts or worse. So, I’m getting about 1.2 to 1 (calling 1485 in a pot with 360+1485) on my money, and I’m about even 50/50 in the worst case scenario of having 13 outs. With the pot offering an extra 20%, it looks like a call makes sense. Granted, if I miss, I’m out, but long term, calls like this will make money. In addition, having a chip count of about 2 times the average, an early double up can put me in a position to win the tournament. Showing people you’re willing to make a tough call also has the benefit of slowing them down against you.
On the flop side, I don’t really understand his reasoning for the unwarranted all-in. He should have made a pot sized bet for a continuation bet. He would have been called or raised (no bet can really get me off my hand at this point – sound familiar?), but it lets him know where he is at. A pot sized bet makes it incorrect for anyone to call him with anything less than a huge draw. He basically forced all hands to play correctly against him. Call if you’re ahead, fold if you’re behind.
If he wants to double up early or go home, then that’s ok, but really, a couple smaller, pot sized bets could take the pot away without risking all his chips. If he gets resistance, he can slow down and still get away from the hand. In a cash game, I’m not sure I like his play, either. Had he bet, been raised, then reraised or folded, I’m ok with it, but basically he laid out his money and had no idea where he stood, out of position, and against a guy who has shown complete tightness (me), who would have folded to a much smaller bet without a hand. Top pair top kicker just isn’t good enough for that kind of allin move. I guess I’d be ok with it if he bet a pot sized bet all 3 streets, but on the flop it just smells too fishy.
If your goal is to win a tourney, and not back into the money, you occasionally have to make calls like this.
I guess what’s most interesting about the hand is that even though I picked up 4 more outs on the river and was about 34% to win at that point, had he made a pot sized bet on the flop (300), and I had called (300), you’ve got 900 in the pot. He can push with his remaining 1200 on the turn, and I’m getting 2100 to 1200 for pot odds (7-4) and I’ve got 2-1 odds to make my hand. I can’t call profitably. I’d need 2400 in the pot to make the call, and it’s not there. Granted, he can’t know that, or know my holding, but he could wait and see if the turn card looks like it helps a draw or not and then make his bet.
BR 64.36