Update (aka The Quick Post That Got Long)

You may notice that I have all these posts showing the same basic dates and times. I’m not writing a million posts today – I’ve had a bunch of things written and not published, so you’re just seeing them for the first time. I’ll get to posting some more previously written material tomorrow.

I played a little tonight (really, not a post from my archives) before I had to do some work – I’m oncall this week. On call weeks mean no tourneys, because I can’t count on not being interrupted. It becomes a wasted buyin if I get a call.

Anyway, results tonight were solid – 138 hands across 4 tables. + 6.06

(This was going to be a quick post that ended here, however, I decided to post and analyze this hand. Warning, it gets long.)

Had 4 relatively big hands – here’s one – first hand I sat down. I played it horribly. Names have been changed to protect the innocent (and guilty).

POKERSTARS GAME #XXXXXXXX: HOLD’EM NO LIMIT ($0.01/$0.02) – 2007/03/30 – 20:43:37 (ET)
Table ‘Phocaea III’ 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: another dude ($1.67 in chips)
Seat 3: Me ($5 in chips)
Seat 4: yet another dude ($3.28 in chips)
Seat 5: Duder1983 ($8.41 in chips)
Seat 6: ATM ($2.62 in chips)
Seat 7: looseygoose ($1.55 in chips)
Seat 8: ringaling($2.28 in chips)
Seat 9: guy ($4.96 in chips)
guy: posts small blind $0.01
another dude: posts big blind $0.02
88_mustang: sits out
Me: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Me [Th Qd]
Me: checks
yet another dude: calls $0.02
Duder1983: raises $0.08 to $0.10
ATM: folds
looseygoose: folds
NLtubz49: calls $0.10
guy: folds
another dude: calls $0.08
Me: calls $0.08
yet another dude: calls $0.08
*** FLOP *** [8d Jc 9s]
another dude: checks
Me: checks
yet another dude: checks
Duder1983: bets $0.30
NLtubz49: calls $0.30
another dude: folds
Me: calls $0.30
yet another dude: folds
*** TURN *** [8d Jc 9s] [Kc]
Me: checks
Duder1983: bets $0.20
NLtubz49: calls $0.20
Me: calls $0.20
*** RIVER *** [8d Jc 9s Kc] [Jd]
Me: checks
Duder1983: bets $0.76
NLtubz49: folds
Me: calls $0.76
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Duder1983: shows [Js As] (three of a kind, Jacks)
Me: shows [Th Qd] (a straight, Nine to King)
Me collected $3.38 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3.53 | Rake $0.15
Board [8d Jc 9s Kc Jd]
Seat 1: another dude (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Me showed [Th Qd] and won ($3.38) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 4: yet another dude folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Duder1983 showed [Js As] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 6: ATM folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: looseygoose folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: ringaling(button) folded on the River
Seat 9: guy (small blind) folded before Flop

In NL, I always post out of position. The implied odds on a goofy hand can be really good, and it sets an image for me, because I’m usually pretty tight. In a limit game, I’ll usually wait for my blind. I just don’t think you can make your money back long term in limit. Anyway, flopping the nut straight your first hand of the night when you posted your blind out of position is a good way to start. Your hand is disguised. I would normally bet this out, but I figured that it wasn’t suited, and someone else had already done the raising and would continue. If the board doesn’t get scary on the river, I could get some real value out of it and go for it on the end.

If you notice, my man Duder1983 did something that should stand out to you. Following along in the hand, he raised preflop (that shouldn’t stand out). However, there’s so many callers, and I’m last, I’m going to get great implied odds for my .08 call of the raise – there’s already .50 in the pot. If I miss, I fold. After I flop it, I know Duder is going to bet it regardless, and fairly large, that’s what he does – .30 – about 3/5 of the pot. It’s nice that I get an extra caller. Regardless of what he has, and what the caller has, I’m so far ahead, I’m not really thinking about much other than not getting stuck with a bad beat on the river. Now to the interesting part. After I call, and the turn comes – a card that may or may not have helped him, he REDUCES the size of his bet from what his flop bet was. He bet .30 on the flop – 3/5 the pot. On the turn, he bets .20 – .10 less(?) and giving over 7-1? There was 1.40 in the pot by this time. He doesn’t like the over and is bluffing. He knows that he could be behind, but is afraid to show weakness and check with this large pot, but doesn’t know enough that offering 7-1 with money left behind means he’s not thinking straight. If you decide that you could be behind, but still want to take the pot, you can’t do it by offering better odds on a highly coordinated board. Who is going to fold now that wouldn’t fold before? Out of position, betting into 2 callers on a coordinated board. After the 2 calls, he catches a J on the river. What does he do now? He increases his bet, but still only bets .76 into a ~2.10 pot. He now thinks he’s ahead and wants a call. This means that he never put me on a straight, and put both callers on the flop on 2 overs, and that he thought one of us hit the K. He must have put one of us on KQ or KT, otherwise there would be a raise preflop. In reality, I don’t think he put either of us on anything. The whole sequence made no sense. What is bad about all this is while I picked up on his weakness on the turn, the board pairing on the river scared me enough to only call. I should have realized this didn’t fit with his hand based on his reduced bet on the turn. I shouldn’t have put him on 2 pair. If I had him on the over pair, I should raise him all in. Big boo boo on my part.

At the start of the hand, I kinda figured the better was on a set or an overpair (due to the preflop raise) and the caller was chasing his straight or had 2 pair and thought he was trapping. People love JT, J9s and J8s, so the caller could easily have one of these. At the time really didn’t like the J on the end, but really, I shouldn’t have cared.

Why? Bettor makes a preflop raise early – he’s not playing J9 or J8. He can have only AA-JJ, MAYBE JTs, 99 or 88, or AX. I’ve seen the preflop raiser play lots of hands, even though this is my first hand tonight, so I should know this. This guy was really weak tight for a long time, never raising, always calling. Recently, he’s been playing more recklessly, so I can’t really know what he has, but I still can’t put him on 2 pair. AJ, 99, or 88 seems a little weak for him, so really, I have to think AA-JJ, so he has an overpair or set. Here’s where my mistake is. When the K comes and he slows down with the underbet, he’s showing huge weakness or begging for a raise. A small hoover bet on the turn is a very complex play at .01/.02 after a decent flop bet and a preflop raise. No one at this level is thinking that deep that they would make that kind of play. So, I have to know he’s weak – he can only have top pair or a pair below KK. If he thinks the K beats him, I have to believe he is on QQ or AJ with QQ being most likely. KK he can’t be scared. AA, he can’t be scared. JJ, 99, 88, he can’t be scared – he just can’t be scared of a K if he has a set. AJ and QQ are the only things that fit if you’re afraid of an overcard. The other guy could have anything, but probably 2 pair or a straight draw. Now comes the board pairing on the river with a J, and a larger bet. The J clearly helps him. The thing is, it can only help one hand based on the betting – AJ (JTs just seems like to weak a hand for this guy to make a preflop raise with). AJ isn’t a great holding early, but a lot of people play it, and it’s what he has to have based on a preflop raise, his weakness on the turn, yet improvement on the river. The J could give a boat to the caller behind if he had been playing 2 pair with J9 or J8, which does fit, however HE FOLDED. The J makes no boats, case closed. My analysis completely ignores what I think he put us on, because I can’t imagine he put un on anything if he gives us 7-1 on the turn. I guess he could have put 2 callers on straight draws, but the K completes no straights, so it still doesn’t justify the turn weakness. 1/3 the pot is not a blocking bet on the river.

Without being results oriented, I really hate my call on the end. I totally botched the read on the hand. I should have read the hand correctly and gone all in, whether he calls or not, but I didn’t. It cost me a good chunk of change, too, he had me covered. It should have been an $11 pot, not a $3.70 pot, becaue I think he does call.

One other thing to get out of that hand is that when someone reduces their bet from the flop to the turn, either they are incredibly tricky and they are thinking that you are smart enough to recognize they are reducing their bet because they are weak, and are actually hitting you with a huge hoover with the nuts, or they are just a terrible player. In this case, which it is in 98% of the cases, I think we know which it is. Don’t do what he did – advertise weakness and give better odds as the hand goes along.

Does anyone think I’m off with my analysis?

BR=$80.71 PTBB/100 for .02NL over 29418 hands 17.81

I may start shorthanding my info to look like this at the end of my posts:

$80.71/~29k/17.81

The Background Post

I suppose I should cover some background about what I do and why, just so you can get an idea of where I’m coming from.

I waited until 2006 to start playing online. I missed the golden years. I had played in casinos and home games for several years, but I waited to start online, because I didn’t know if I trusted the sites to pay out once I started winning my millions. In addition, it took some convincing before my wife would part with a couple hundred bucks for me to start my adventure. At this point, especially with legislation getting kinda crazy, I’m not planning on re-depositing, so I’m going to grind my way up. I’ll deal with withdrawing when I get there.

I play on Pokerstars exclusively. The reason is pretty simple. I tried UB and PartyPoker, but UB had a terrible game selection, and PartyPoker did too. I didn’t want to put a ton of money online, because I have a family and a limited budget, so my bankroll precluded me from really playing on those sites. They don’t have the tiny .01/.02 games. Having a limited bankroll, I can’t spread it around.

Due to some poor choices, after building up my bankroll to about ~$800, I’ve blown most of it on WSOP satellites, a PS $215 Sunday Million buyin, Pokertracker software, and a couple of rounds in some larger games, ignoring good bankroll management strategy. Back in September of 2006, my online BR was down to a paltry ~$3.00. I decided to start playing .01/.02 NL, lower than I had ever played, where the minimum buyin is $1.00 to see if I could accomplish what Chris Ferguson was able to. Using the ‘Jesus Experiment’ guidelines (aka the 5% NL rule which I’ll cover that in another post), I was able to build up to about $250 again in a couple months. Once again, I got ahead of myself and played in some larger games ‘taking a shot’, and I’m back down to about ~$75.00. Overall, I’m clearly down some money in my online adventure, but I’m also clearly up for stakes where I have large hand samples. I’d like to think that I’ve just had a run of bad luck when I move up, and that’s the only thing keeping me in the micros, but it may be that I’m just not good enough to move up. We’ll see.

I play part time, probably less that 8 hours a week. Usually I play on nights when my wife is working and my daughter is asleep, or on a weekend night when everyone has gone to bed. I’ll usually 4-table .02 or .05 NL for an hour or two. I get in about 55 hands per hour per table, so I’ll get in about 200-400 hands a session a few times a week. I don’t have too many opportunities to play tournaments, because they take too long. I’d like to play more of them, but that’s the way my schedule is. When I do play them, I usually play the 45 man $1.20 buyin SnGs. I do fairly well in them, but not great.

My greatest online poker accomplishment is winning a $215 PokerStars Sunday Million seat in a 36 man FPP freeroll. I didn’t make it much past the first break. I’ve also won seats to several satellites viaWSOP and WCOOP supersatellites. I’ve come close to winning a couple satellites, but I’ve never gotten there.

My main game currently is 9 man .02 NL, buying in for $5. I have a bankroll for about 15 buyins right now. Most people suggest 20 buyins (the 5% rule again), so I’m pushing it a bit, but based on my Pokertracker stats, I’m confident that this gives me plenty of breathing room at this limit. I’ll explain why in another post.

I may talk about my home game and casino exploits, too, but I haven’t done much of either lately.

I’ll be posting my current BR at the end of each post just so everyone can keep track of how I’m doing.

BR=~$75.00

So, I signed up for Adsense

I decided to sign up for Google Adsense. I figure it can’t hurt, and I may earn as much doing that as I’d earn playing .01/.02 NL. www.google.com/adsense.

So don’t be shy about clicking the ads in the lower right hand corner. I’m not allowed, but you can.

Crushing The Microstakes

I’ve decided to create a blog to discuss my online microstakes poker adventures, mostly so I don’t have to send the same emails and have the same discussions with my small group of friends that play poker.

What do I mean by Microstakes? Real small stakes – where the blinds are real small, as low as .01/.02 No Limit.

I’ll be discussing hand histories, Poker Tracker stats, books, theory, bankroll management and whatnot. I almost called this ‘Teaching My Mom to Play Online Poker’, but she’s (hopefully) not the only one reading this.

Reasoned discussion is welcome.